By Godson Azu
Nigeria today stands at a pivotal political crossroads. Once hailed as the beacon of African democracy, the nation increasingly resembles a political jungle — where power is concentrated in the hands of a dominant force, opposition voices shrink, and democratic norms are under siege.
I. Nigeria’s ‘Lion’: The Dominance of the Ruling Party
In the jungle of Nigerian politics, the All Progressives Congress (APC) — led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu — has emerged as the undisputed “lion.” Since the 2023 general election, APC’s control has extended far beyond the presidency into legislative chambers, governorship offices, and local councils across the federation. A significant wave of defections from opposition parties — especially from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party — has bolstered this dominance. 
Political analysts note that this trend is not merely about party competitiveness; it is about structural consolidation of power. According to research by the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership, defections of governors and lawmakers have materially shifted institutional strength toward APC — controlling over two-thirds of state governments and majorities in the National Assembly. 
Opposition leaders assert that these defections are often driven not by ideology but by political survival, patronage, and intimidation — a dynamic that weakens the constitutional intent of multiparty democracy. 
II. The Opposition: Fragmented, Eroded, Running from the Lion
In the traditional rules of democratic contestation, opposition parties serve as checks on executive power. In Nigeria today, however, opposition forces are fractured, depleted, and frequently abandoning ground rather than confronting the dominant intake of political power.
• The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — once Nigeria’s ruling party — has seen a significant number of governors, senators, and state assembly members defect to APC. 
• Labour Party (LP) and other smaller parties have suffered comparable losses, with elected officials crossing over, often causing anxiety among grassroots supporters about ideological commitment. 
Observers describe this trend as more than opportunistic party-switching: it represents the hollowing out of opposition structures. Without robust resistance, democracy loses one of its vital mechanisms for accountability and responsiveness. 
III. Is Nigeria Becoming a One-Party or Authoritarian State?
The fear that Nigeria is sliding toward a de facto one-party state is increasingly common among scholars, civil society, and even senior political voices.
Constitutional lawyer Professor Mike Ozekhome (SAN) warned that rampant defections and lack of ideological coherence risk transforming Nigeria into a one-party polity — where legislative and judicial checks are neutralised and political competition becomes meaningless. 
Opposition leaders, including Atiku Abubakar and figures from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have publicly accused the current government of using state instruments — such as anti-corruption agencies and security forces — to intimidate rivals rather than foster genuine electoral competition. 
This mirrors patterns seen in other political contexts where democratic forms persist while substantive pluralism fades, a process Freedom House terms “modern authoritarianism,” in which political repression is exercised under the cover of democratic institutions. 
IV. Comparisons with Global Models: CCP or Something Else?
There are narratives — especially in social discourse — comparing Nigeria’s dominant party system to those in China (CCP), Russia, or Iran. Yet these analogies are imperfect:
• China’s Communist Party operates an integrated single-party system with constitutional supremacy, no electoral rotation of power, and unified ideological structure.
• Russia and Iran combine centralized executive authority with controlled political spaces, but each has distinct legal and cultural frameworks supporting elite dominance.
Nigeria’s situation, by contrast, is extractive rather than ideological — driven by rent-seeking elites, patronage politics, and individual ambition rather than a consolidated dogma like communism or religious governance. Political defections often reflect personal survival instincts and resource access rather than cohesive ideological alignment. 
Thus, to describe Nigeria as aligning with a “Neo-Communist-liberal structure” is an overstretch. The real scenario is an authoritarian-tending democracy — where democratic procedures exist nominally, but power consolidation and institutional weakening compromise effective competition.
V. Voices from Within: Alarm and Reflection
Public intellectuals and veteran politicians have sounded urgent warnings:
“We’ve damaged this democracy… Nigeria is virtually back to civilian dictators who don’t care how you feel or what you think.”
— Dele Momodu, PDP chieftain. 
Similarly, civil society groups argue that defections without ideological purpose undermine the very essence of representative government:
“When opposition is silenced, when legislature becomes a rubber stamp, and judiciary seals corruption, dictatorship does not arrive with guns — it arrives with applause.”
— CHRICED statement on political defections. 
These perspectives reveal a growing fear that Nigeria’s democratic framework is being reconfigured into a façade of pluralism while actual political diversity shrinks.
VI. What Must Change: Propositions for Democratic Renewal
To avert the slide into one-party dominance or authoritarian pseudo-democracy, a series of reforms and commitments are essential:
- Strengthen Anti-Defection Laws
Reforming Nigeria’s political framework to discourage opportunistic defections and ensure elected officials remain accountable to constitutive mandates could rebalance competition. - Institutional Independence & Rule of Law
Judicial autonomy, legislative oversight, and independent media must be protected and empowered to counterbalance executive dominance. - Rebuild Opposition Identity and Coalitions
Opposition parties must reforge ideological clarity and strategic cooperation to provide credible alternatives and energise electoral participation. - Civil Society Engagement
Strengthening civic education, youth participation, and grassroots movements will deepen democratic culture and challenge apathy.
Conclusion — The Politics of a Nation at Stake
Nigeria’s political jungle today is a complex ecosystem where the lion’s roar echoes loudly, the opposition lurks with diminishing strength, and the very structures meant to sustain democracy are under unprecedented strain. The country does not yet resemble China, Russia, or Iran in ideological terms — but the mechanics of democratic erosion are unmistakable.
The battle for Nigeria’s political future will not be won by slogans or defections alone. It will be won by institutional reform, ideological substance, and citizen engagement that anchors political competition in genuine democratic choice. If these fail, the jungle will not produce a thriving democratic forest, but a wilderness of authoritarian dominance and political deprivation.
