By Mazi. Godson. Azu. Director. CM Centre for Leadership and Good Governance UK. Convener of Annual London Political Summit and Awards.
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Abstract
Across the world, political parties are losing the loyalty they once commanded. Yet the nature of this erosion differs sharply between mature democracies and post-colonial political systems. While countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States are experiencing the decline of inherited party allegiance, Nigeria confronts a deeper and more consequential challenge: the absence of institutionalised trust in parties themselves. This article offers a comparative and historically grounded analysis of party loyalty and voter trust, placing Nigeria at the centre of a global discussion on democratic legitimacy, political performance, and the future of representative governance.
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- Introduction: The End of Automatic Allegiance
For much of the twentieth century, democratic politics rested on a simple assumption: voters belonged to parties, and parties represented voters. Political loyalty was durable, inherited, and socially reinforced. In Britain, party identification was closely linked to class, occupation, and community; in the United States, it was shaped by ideology, race, and regional history.
That era has ended.
Across liberal democracies, voters are increasingly sceptical, volatile, and transactional. Party membership is declining, electoral volatility is rising, and trust in political elites is at historic lows. Yet while this phenomenon appears global, it is not uniform. The erosion of party loyalty in the UK or US reflects disappointment with once-trusted institutions. In Nigeria, by contrast, it reflects a failure of trust to ever fully form.
Understanding this distinction is essential for grasping the present and future of democratic politics.
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- Historical Foundations of Party Loyalty: A Comparative Starting Point
Western Democracies: Loyalty Built on Institutions
In post-war Britain, party loyalty emerged from stable social cleavages. The Labour Party was rooted in organised labour and welfare statism; the Conservative Party drew strength from property ownership, business interests, and institutional conservatism. Parties were mass organisations with ideological coherence, internal discipline, and programmatic continuity.
Political scientists described this stability as a “frozen party system,” where voters’ identities translated predictably into electoral behaviour (Lipset & Rokkan, 1967). Trust was sustained not because governments were perfect, but because institutions were reliable.
Nigeria: Loyalty Without Institutionalisation
Nigeria’s political trajectory diverged sharply. At independence in 1960, political parties such as the Northern People’s Congress (NPC), National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), and Action Group (AG) were not ideological coalitions but regional and ethnic vehicles. Loyalty existed, but it was communal rather than national, personal rather than programmatic.
Military rule (1966–1979; 1983–1999) repeatedly dismantled emerging party systems, destroying institutional memory and democratic continuity. Unlike Britain, where parties survived wars and crises, Nigeria’s parties were repeatedly dissolved and reconstituted, preventing the maturation of trust.
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- Dealignment vs Non-Alignment: A Critical Distinction
In political theory, the decline of party loyalty in advanced democracies is described as dealignment—the weakening of traditional party attachments due to social change, globalisation, and ideological convergence (Dalton, 2000).
Nigeria’s experience is different. It is better described as non-alignment:
voters were never deeply aligned with parties in the first place.
This distinction matters. Dealignment occurs after trust has been established and disappointed. Non-alignment reflects a political system where parties function primarily as electoral machines, not representative institutions.
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- Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: Competition Without Choice
PDP, APC, and Elite Circulation
Since 1999, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has been dominated by two major parties:
• the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and
• the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Yet despite alternation in power, there has been little ideological differentiation. Political elites routinely defect between parties, often shortly before elections, without reputational cost. In comparative terms, this signals weak party institutionalisation, a condition strongly correlated with low voter trust (Mainwaring & Scully, 1995).
In the UK or US, party defection is rare and politically risky. In Nigeria, it is strategic and often rewarded. The message to voters is unmistakable: parties are interchangeable, and principles are negotiable.
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- Trust and Loyalty Compared: Nigeria, UK, and US
Dimension
Nigeria
UK / US
Historical party roots
Weak, disrupted
Strong, continuous
Ideological clarity
Low
Moderate (declining)
Elite party switching
Frequent
Rare
Voter–party identification
Very low
Moderate to low
Trust in election outcomes
Fragile
Relatively high
Role of money in elections
Dominant
Regulated
Youth confidence in parties
Extremely low
Low but issue-driven
While trust in political parties is declining everywhere, Nigeria faces a systemic legitimacy problem, not merely a cyclical one.
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- Voter Behaviour Paradox in Nigeria
Nigeria presents a paradox rarely seen in Western democracies:
high electoral participation combined with deep political cynicism.
Voters participate not because they trust parties, but because political power directly affects:
• access to state resources,
• local security outcomes,
• ethnic and regional bargaining positions.
In contrast, declining turnout in the UK reflects disengagement within a system still widely regarded as legitimate. Nigerian voters engage tactically because abstention is perceived as political exclusion.
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- Youth Politics and the 2023 Disruption
The 2023 general elections marked a turning point. Urban youth mobilisation, digital campaigning, and issue-based politics challenged Nigeria’s traditional party dominance. While institutional constraints limited electoral outcomes, the psychological shift was profound.
This mirrors earlier political disruptions in Britain (Brexit) and the United States (Obama and Trump eras), but with a crucial difference:
Nigeria’s institutions have not yet adapted to the new political consciousness of its citizens.
Young Nigerians do not reject democracy; they reject parties that fail to represent it.
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- Global Lessons: Different Crises, Shared Risks
• The UK and US are confronting the erosion of loyalty within long-standing institutions.
• Nigeria is confronting the absence of trust in institutions that never fully consolidated.
Both trajectories are dangerous. Where loyalty collapses without trust to replace it, democracies risk:
• voter apathy,
• electoral violence,
• judicialised politics,
• and post-election legitimacy crises.
Nigeria’s frequent post-election disputes and declining turnout since 2011 illustrate this danger starkly.
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- The Future of Party Politics in Nigeria
Nigeria’s democratic renewal will not come from restoring nostalgic party loyalty. It must come from building credibility where loyalty never matured.
Essential reforms include:
1. Enforceable electoral transparency
2. Genuine internal party democracy
3. Ideological differentiation and policy coherence
4. Legal limits on opportunistic defections
5. Youth inclusion beyond symbolism
Only when parties become institutions rather than platforms can voter trust begin to consolidate.
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Conclusion: Nigeria as Warning and Possibility
Nigeria offers a critical lesson to global democracies:
loyalty cannot substitute for trust, and trust cannot be manufactured without institutions.
Yet Nigeria also embodies possibility. Its youthful population, digital political culture, and rising civic consciousness could redefine democratic practice in Africa—if political parties evolve to meet citizens where they are.
The future of democracy, in Nigeria and beyond, will not belong to parties that demand loyalty, but to those that earn trust.
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References
• Adebanwi, W. & Obadare, E. (2011). Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria. Palgrave.
• Afrobarometer (2022). Trust, Elections and Democracy in Nigeria.
• Butler, D. & Stokes, D. (1974). Political Change in Britain.
• Dalton, R. J. (2000). The Decline of Party Identifications.
• Diamond, L. (2008). The Spirit of Democracy.
• INEC (2011–2023). Election Reports.
• Lipset, S. M. & Rokkan, S. (1967). Party Systems and Voter Alignments.
• Mainwaring, S. & Scully, T. (1995). Building Democratic Institutions.
• Norris, P. (2011). Democratic Deficit.
